Newsletter summary

The pulp market experienced price adjustment last week, with a decline in contract positions in 2405.Celebrityfamilyfeudseason8High import costs, reduced supply, light demand and rising inventory levels; UPM Uruguay plant shutdown maintenance, pulp prices are expected to be strong.

Text of news flash

[pulp market price trend aroused concern] Last week, the main pulp contract experienced a shock adjustment, with an opening price of 6440 yuan, reaching a peak of 6482 yuan in the week, and finally closed at 6290 yuan, a drop of 2%Celebrityfamilyfeudseason8.18%. At the same time, the top 20 long positions decreased by 1359 lots from the previous day, totaling 130150 lots, while short positions decreased by 6536 lots to 126339 lots. Spot price, as of April 19, Shandong Yinxing pulp quoted price of 6300 yuan / ton, compared with the highest point of 7600 yuan / ton and the lowest point of 4350 yuan / ton in 5 years, the current price is at the 60 percentile level. In addition, the price of Shandong Russian needle pulp is maintained at 6000 yuan / ton. In terms of import cost, Canadian Moon Needle Pulp was quoted at US $820 per ton in April, while Meissen Needle Pulp in Germany was quoted at US $810 per ton. According to the analysis, the high cost of arrival has supported the pulp price to some extent. On the supply side, Finlinfenbao's pulp production fell due to prolonged shutdowns at its factories, with zero supply to the Chinese market in April. At the same time, the Ilim Group, Russia's main pulp mill, has also affected shipments to China due to maintenance, and imports are expected to decrease. However, on the demand side, the demand of downstream base paper manufacturers is still weak. In particular, the market demand for white cardboard is not good, and some paper mills have even reduced the price of paper. In addition, some domestic paper mills have reduced the consumption of high-priced pulp due to downtime and maintenance, and the social demand and publishing orders in the cultural paper market are also weak. In terms of inventory, as of April 18, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 1.891 million tons, up 0.9% from the previous month, but down 6.5% from the same period last year, indicating that the current port inventory level is at the highest level since 2023. On the news side, pulp manufacturer UPM has begun a scheduled full maintenance shutdown of its FrayBentos plant in Uruguay, which is expected to last for two weeks. The downtime will include a series of tasks to optimize operations and ensure process efficiency, such as equipment inspection, mechanical and electrical maintenance, special welding, deep cleaning and parts replacement. Comprehensive analysis, although domestic demand is weak, import costs and supply-side support limit the pulping price correction, pulp prices are expected to run firmly. Investors should pay close attention to the changes in supply and demand in the pulp market in order to make wise investment decisions.