Special topic: April non-farm far lower than expectedPennslammer34000In February and March, non-farmers were revised down 2.Pennslammer34000.20,000 people

① is just likePennslammer34000As I feared after President Powell's press conference on Wednesday, he may already know that today's jobs report is going to be even weaker. ② non-farm payrolls are 17Pennslammer34000. 50, 000 people, while the market is generally expected to be 243000, the average hourly wage fell to less than 4%. ③ 's current economic cycle is showing signs similar to many other cycles and may be on the verge of a hard landing rather than a soft landing. At present, the labor market, the backbone of the US economy, is in danger. The financial situation of the average American is far from sound, which should be of serious concern. The balance of ④ credit cards has reached unprecedented levels and the savings rate has fallen to a record low. In this case, many low-and middle-income Americans are particularly vulnerable. If unemployment rises sharply and unemployment increases, there will be no fiscal cushion for a rainy day. Since consumption accounts for almost 70% of GDP in ⑤, demand is likely to remain very weak until the deleveraging process is completed. When the cycle changes, I think the decline in inflation will be in line with the extent of the recession. ⑥ my favorite indicator these days is the credit spread between investment-grade and high-yield bonds, both of which are at historic lows. Once, even before the economy weakens, these spreads soar, and that's when we have to worry.